Forecast Accuracy
We track every forecast we make and compare it to what actually happened. No spin, no cherry-picking.
Accuracy by Region
sorted by accuracyDeep South
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Delaware
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Georgia
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Maryland
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Rhode Island
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
South Carolina
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Virginia
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
New Hampshire
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
New York
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Massachusetts
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Oregon
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
New Jersey
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Maine
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Los Angeles County, California
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Florida - East Coast
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
North Carolina
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Ventura County, California
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Texas
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
San Diego County, California
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Orange County, California
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Florida - West Coast
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Northern California
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Santa Barbara County, California
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Puerto Rico
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Oahu
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Washington
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Accuracy Over Time
Getting Better Every Day
Every forecast we generate is another data point that makes the next one more accurate. As we collect more data across more swell events, seasons, and edge cases, our model learns the unique behavior of each coastline and refines its corrections.
We run automated calibration after every model cycle, comparing our predictions against NDBC buoy observations and benchmark forecasts. When a region consistently over- or under-predicts, our system applies per-spot corrections that tighten accuracy over time. The more data we collect, the better every forecast gets.
How We Measure
The average difference between our predicted wave height and the observed height, in feet. Lower is better. An MAE under 1ft means our forecast is reliably within one foot of reality.
How often our forecast lands within one foot of the actual wave height. This is the metric that matters most for planning your session — if we say 3ft, you can trust it will be 2-4ft.
Coarse grids capture open-ocean swells, intermediate grids resolve regional coastline effects, and fine grids (down to 50m resolution) model how waves transform over each spot's unique bathymetry.
Every model run is compared against NDBC buoy stations and benchmark forecasts. Per-spot corrections are applied automatically to continuously improve accuracy across all regions.
Accuracy is everything.
If we can't earn your trust with data, we haven't earned your money. When we get it wrong, we tell you why and what we're doing about it. We believe transparency makes better forecasts — and better forecasts make better sessions.
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