New York
Conditions stay similar this week — check the hourly forecast at Tobay Beach for the cleanest windows.
Here's how the next 5 days are shaping up at Tobay Beach, New York. Each day is rated based on breaking wave height, swell period, and wind — updated hourly from the latest NOAA GFS run.
Tue, Jun 30: 1–2ft, 9s period, rated Poor. Slim pickings today — 1ft and poor with barely a breath of wind. Afternoon breeze fills in to 16mph.
Wed, Jul 1: 2–2ft, 6s period, rated Very Poor. Not the most exciting day — 1-2ft and very poor conditions with strong S wind at 18mph.
Thu, Jul 2: 2–2ft, 6s period, rated Poor - Fair. Aim for the middle of the day — 2ft on SE swell at 10s with 7mph from the W. It's a bit wonky first thing but settles down.
Fri, Jul 3: 1–2ft, 6s period, rated Poor. Early morning is your best window — 2ft waves on S swell at 6s with 9mph WNW winds. Things get a bit scrappier as the day goes on.
Sat, Jul 4: 1–2ft, 5s period, rated Poor. Pretty quiet out there — 1-2ft and mostly poor with light WNW winds. Expect the wind to bump up to around 15mph by PM.
Tobay Beach is a mellow Long Island surf spot on the barrier island of New York's South Shore, facing south into the Atlantic across the Great South Bay. The break produces gentle, rolling waves that work best on south swells pushed up by tropical storms and nor'easters, with the sandy bottom keeping things forgiving for newer surfers. Its relative seclusion compared to Jones Beach and the surrounding nature preserve make it a quieter option for those looking to score uncrowded waves along this stretch of New York coastline.
Wave heights shown are breaking wave heights — the actual rideable wave size at this spot.
The current wave height at Tobay Beach is 1ft with a 9.15s swell period. Wind is SSW at 11mph and conditions are rated Poor. The forecast updates hourly so you can plan your session around the cleanest windows.
The current breaking wave height at Tobay Beach is 1ft, produced by a 1.5ft SE primary swell at 9s, a 0.6ft S secondary swell at 6s, a 1ft SW wind swell swell at 3s. Breaking wave height is the actual rideable wave size at the shore — calculated from offshore swell data using this spot's coastal bathymetry — not the raw buoy reading.
Based on the current 5-day forecast, the best window to surf Tobay Beach is Thursday from 8 AM to 11 AM with 2ft waves, a 5.95s swell period, and conditions rated Poor - Fair. Check the hourly forecast for updates as conditions can shift.
Tobay Beach works best with a S swell and NNW winds. Offshore winds groom the face of the wave, while onshore winds turn it sloppy. Cross-offshore conditions usually produce the cleanest shape.
Tide plays a big role at Tobay Beach. Mid tide works for most beach breaks, while reef and point breaks often prefer higher or lower stages. Use the tide chart above to line up your session with the swell peak.
Tobay Beach is a beach with a sand bottom, suited to beginner surfers. Tobay Beach is a mellow Long Island surf spot on the barrier island of New York's South Shore, facing south into the Atlantic across the Great South Bay. The break produces gentle, rolling waves that work best on south swells pushed up by tropical storms and nor'easters, with the sandy bottom keeping things forgiving for newer surfers. Its relative seclusion compared to Jones Beach and the surrounding nature preserve make it a quieter option for those looking to score uncrowded waves along this stretch of New York coastline.
The prime season at Tobay Beach is fall, when swell direction, wind patterns, and water temps line up most consistently. Outside the peak season you can still score, but you'll need to watch the forecast closely for the right windows.
Common hazards at Tobay Beach include strong rip currents, seasonal jellyfish, crowded summer beach traffic, shifting sandbars. Always check conditions before paddling out, respect local etiquette, and never surf alone if you're unfamiliar with the break.
Our Tobay Beach forecast uses NOAA GFS and other weather models combined with spot-specific bathymetry to calculate breaking wave heights. Short-range (1-3 day) forecasts are most reliable. Extended forecasts show general trends. Visit /public/accuracy for per-spot and regional performance metrics.
