New York
Here's how the next 5 days are shaping up at Tobay Beach, New York. Each day is rated based on breaking wave height, swell period, and wind — updated hourly from the latest NOAA GFS run.
Sat, May 16: 3–4ft, 10s period, rated Poor - Fair. Get out early for the best of it — 3-4ft waves on SE swell at 9s and calm winds. Wind fills in through the day, pushing up to 17mph from the S and dropping conditions to poor.
Sun, May 17: 3–4ft, 8s period, rated Fair. Early morning is your best window — 3-4ft waves on S swell at 6s with light WSW winds. Onshore flow builds through the day to 13mph, bringing conditions down to poor - fair.
Mon, May 18: 2–3ft, 8s period, rated Fair. First light looks cleanest — 3-4ft on S swell at 8s with gentle E breeze. Things get a bit scrappier as the day goes on.
Tue, May 19: 2–3ft, 5s period, rated Poor - Fair. A slow one — 2-3ft waves and poor - fair conditions with light winds out of the SW. Expect the wind to bump up to around 12mph by PM.
Wed, May 20: 3–4ft, 6s period, rated Poor - Fair. First light looks cleanest — 3-4ft on SE swell at 14s with moderate SW wind around 8mph. The SSW wind kicks in by afternoon — 15mph and poor - fair by then.
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Tobay Beach is a mellow Long Island surf spot on the barrier island of New York's South Shore, facing south into the Atlantic across the Great South Bay. The break produces gentle, rolling waves that work best on south swells pushed up by tropical storms and nor'easters, with the sandy bottom keeping things forgiving for newer surfers. Its relative seclusion compared to Jones Beach and the surrounding nature preserve make it a quieter option for those looking to score uncrowded waves along this stretch of New York coastline.
Wave heights shown are breaking wave heights — the actual rideable wave size at this spot.
The current wave height at Tobay Beach is 3-4+ft with a 9.25s swell period. Wind is SSW at 5mph and conditions are rated Fair. The forecast updates hourly so you can plan your session around the cleanest windows.
The current breaking wave height at Tobay Beach is 3-4+ft, produced by a 3.3ft SE primary swell at 9s. Breaking wave height is the actual rideable wave size at the shore — calculated from offshore swell data using this spot's coastal bathymetry — not the raw buoy reading.
Based on the current 5-day forecast, the best window to surf Tobay Beach is Sunday from 7 AM to 10 AM with 4ft waves, a 6.15s swell period, and conditions rated Fair - Good. Check the hourly forecast for updates as conditions can shift.
Tobay Beach works best with a S swell and NNW winds. Offshore winds groom the face of the wave, while onshore winds turn it sloppy. Cross-offshore conditions usually produce the cleanest shape.
Tide plays a big role at Tobay Beach. Mid tide works for most beach breaks, while reef and point breaks often prefer higher or lower stages. Use the tide chart above to line up your session with the swell peak.
Tobay Beach is a beach with a sand bottom, suited to beginner surfers. Tobay Beach is a mellow Long Island surf spot on the barrier island of New York's South Shore, facing south into the Atlantic across the Great South Bay. The break produces gentle, rolling waves that work best on south swells pushed up by tropical storms and nor'easters, with the sandy bottom keeping things forgiving for newer surfers. Its relative seclusion compared to Jones Beach and the surrounding nature preserve make it a quieter option for those looking to score uncrowded waves along this stretch of New York coastline.
The prime season at Tobay Beach is fall, when swell direction, wind patterns, and water temps line up most consistently. Outside the peak season you can still score, but you'll need to watch the forecast closely for the right windows.
Common hazards at Tobay Beach include strong rip currents, seasonal jellyfish, crowded summer beach traffic, shifting sandbars. Always check conditions before paddling out, respect local etiquette, and never surf alone if you're unfamiliar with the break.
Our Tobay Beach forecast uses NOAA GFS and other weather models combined with spot-specific bathymetry to calculate breaking wave heights. Short-range (1-3 day) forecasts are most reliable. Extended forecasts show general trends. See the forecast accuracy card above for per-spot and regional performance metrics.
